Dried Up: The Human Cost of Afghanistan’s Fruitless Trade Wars

In southern Afghanistan, the province of Kandahar is usually bustling with activity during grape season. However, beneath this agricultural boom lies a devastating reality: the impact of endless conflict on local trade.

For months, skirmishes between Afghan forces and their Pakistani counterparts have raged across the long border separating these two countries. This fighting has claimed hundreds of lives but has had a more insidious effect – crippling the region’s grape producers, who rely almost exclusively on Pakistan as a market for their prized export.

The effects are stark: even dried and turned into raisins, Afghanistan’s grapes can no longer fetch a price worthy of export. Sakhi Jan, an orchard owner in Kandahar’s Zhari district, says his family barely gets by these days. “We are grateful,” he says wistfully, “but things aren’t like they used to be.”

In 2025, the five southern provinces that comprise Afghanistan’s main grape-producing region exported a significant 44,225 tons – worth $13.8 million – primarily to Pakistan. However, this year exports have dwindled precipitously, with only 256 tons making it out, valued at just $100,000.

The ripple effects are being felt throughout the agricultural community: Qudratullah Popal, who once worked on an orchard that employed over 1,500 laborers last year, now counts himself among just 15 workers. “When routes are blocked and trade halts,” he laments, “everyone’s livelihood is paralyzed.”

It’s not just grape producers who bear the brunt of this hardship – entire families rely on these crops for sustenance. With poverty rampant in Afghanistan, every drop in income counts: even a modest increase in food prices can push households over the edge.

The conflict between Kabul and Islamabad has left both governments with an opportunity to negotiate a lasting truce that opens trade routes once more. By doing so, they could provide some much-needed relief to their embattled citizens. As Sakhi Jan puts it – with characteristic candor: “We urge both our government and Pakistan to open these routes and reach an agreement… The current situation is causing great hardship.”

A lasting resolution to this diplomatic stalemate seems elusive. Until then, the people of Kandahar’s grape country will continue to suffer in silence – their fruit left to wither on the vine.

A Cycle of Despair

Afghanistan has a long history of repeating itself, and this latest episode of border closures serves as a grim reminder that such conflicts only exacerbate existing economic woes. Poverty leads to desperation, which fuels conflict; meanwhile, trade wars continue to strangle any attempts at recovery.

For years, Pakistan and Afghanistan have been locked in a perpetual game of cat-and-mouse – with each country accusing the other of harboring militants who launch attacks across their shared border. The consequences are dire: hundreds dead, livelihoods shattered, entire communities left reeling from economic hardship.

Lessons Unlearned

The conflict between Kabul and Islamabad lacks a clear resolution strategy. Both governments appear more interested in scoring points off each other than finding common ground to address the underlying issues driving these skirmishes.

Local residents like Sakhi Jan – struggling to make ends meet as they lose their livelihoods – are left to pick up the pieces. “In the past,” he recalls wistfully, “work was steady… people generally had good work.” It’s hard not to wonder what his life would be like today if only those halcyon days were still within reach.

Next Steps

Acknowledging that this conflict is as much about economic survival as it is national security might just provide a glimmer of hope for resolution. The stakes are high – but not insurmountable.

Only through constructive dialogue and genuine compromise can Afghanistan’s grape producers see their fortunes change once more. As Sakhi Jan so eloquently put it: “The current situation is causing great hardship.” Perhaps it’s time someone listened.