ASEAN’s Relevance in Question: A Test of its Centrality

ASEAN Secretary-General Kao Kim Hourn has sounded a warning bell about the regional grouping’s waning influence as countries form smaller security alliances. This development is a timely reminder of Southeast Asia’s evolving dynamics, where competing interests have long been delicately balanced.

As ASEAN approaches its 60th anniversary in 2027, it faces a daunting challenge: adapting to a changing strategic landscape. The emergence of new arrangements such as the US-Japan-Philippines trilateral partnership and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) between the US, Japan, Australia, and India has raised questions about ASEAN’s continued relevance.

A Fragmented Regional Architecture?

ASEAN’s centrality, long considered a cornerstone of regional diplomacy, is being tested by the growing complexity of the security landscape. Countries are increasingly seeking out smaller groupings to address specific challenges, which raises concerns that ASEAN-led forums may lose influence. The proliferation of sub-regional arrangements has led some to question whether ASEAN’s institutions can remain relevant in a world where major powers compete for influence.

Kao’s warning is not unprecedented; regional organizations often struggle to adapt to changing circumstances, as ASEAN itself has experienced throughout its history. The challenge now is for ASEAN to demonstrate its ability to bring countries together and enable collective action in the face of growing competition between major powers.

Economic Resilience and Technological Change

ASEAN’s continued relevance also depends on addressing pressing economic challenges. Kao highlighted energy, food, and economic security as interconnected issues requiring a coordinated response. The region cannot afford to retreat from openness and economic integration, which have driven growth in the past. Instead, ASEAN must work towards making interdependence safer through diversification, redundancy, and stronger regional capacity.

The impact of technological change on ASEAN’s institutions is another pressing concern. Kao noted that emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence pose risks if not managed carefully, particularly with regards to exacerbating existing inequalities. ASEAN’s ability to harness the benefits of technology while mitigating its risks will be crucial in determining its continued relevance.

Lessons from History

ASEAN’s success has always rested on its ability to adapt and evolve. Throughout its history, the grouping has demonstrated a willingness to reassess its institutions and approaches in response to changing circumstances. As Kao noted, ASEAN has never advanced by standing still – it has progressed through thinking together, making choices together, and finding ways to move forward together.

ASEAN’s upcoming 60th anniversary marks an opportune moment for reflection and renewal. The region should use this milestone as a chance to examine whether its institutions and approaches remain suited to the current strategic environment. Only by acknowledging the challenges of the new era can ASEAN hope to maintain its centrality in regional diplomacy.

The coming years will be critical in determining ASEAN’s relevance in the face of growing competition between major powers. The grouping must demonstrate its ability to bring countries together, manage differences, and enable collective action on pressing economic, technological, and security challenges. If ASEAN can adapt and evolve, it may yet prove that its institutions remain relevant in a rapidly changing world.

But if not, the consequences could be dire: ASEAN’s irrelevance would leave a power vacuum in Southeast Asia, with potentially far-reaching implications for regional stability and cooperation. It is time for ASEAN to show that it can earn its centrality – not just rest on institutional inheritance alone.